THE INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCED STUDY Princeton, New Jersey
School of Historical Studies
May 26, 1951
Dear Dean:
Pursuant to our conversation of the day before yesterday I want to add a few thoughts that occur to me in connection with your coming appearance on the Hill.
1) I enclose a copy of a lecture I recently delivered at Princeton University on World War II. I think the passage on pages 12 to 14 dealing with the wartime conferences and the final passage on pages 17 and 18 dealing with the limitations of war as a vehicle for the achievement of democratic objectives may contain thoughts which could possibly be useful to you.
2) With regard to contact between General MacArthur and the Department of State, I think you should know that the reason I was sent to Japan in the spring of 1948 was that the Department of State appeared to have no adequate facilities for getting information (about activities of SCAP and conditions in Japan) necessary for proper study of the Japanese peace treaty problem. In particular, we had difficulty finding out what had really been done about the purges and about the decentralization of industry. It looked to us as though a huge percentage of Japanese corporate wealth had been effectively nationalized under the decentralization program, and we were unable to learn where this matter really stood, how much of this wealth had been redistributed to private owners in Japan, etc. It seemed to us that the prospects for future stability and indigenous resistance to communist pressures depended on the answers to questions of this sort, and our channels of communication with SCAP did not seem to be adequate to provide us with such information.
I believe that in one of the Policy Planning Staff papers submitted to General Marshall at that time I recommended that he grasp the nettle involved in the problem of the State Department's relationships with General MacArthur and see whether we could not have a full-fledged diplomatic representative in Tokyo who would not be a subordinate of the General in his military command, who could report independently to the Department of State, and who could entertain relations with the Japanese Government and the other diplomatic missions in Tokyo in a manner from which the Supreme Commander was
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obviously barred by the circumstances of his position. While General Marshall could give the only authoritative answer as to why this recommendation was not acted upon, I am sure it was out of consideration for General MacArthur's known feelings on this subject and out of a reluctance to propose any arrangements which would not be agreeable to him.
The point I am driving at, which I think may be relevant to questions asked you, is that the State Department exercised considerable forbearance over a period of some years, and consented to forego adequate facilities for judging the situation in Japan, in difference to what it believed to be General MacArthur's feelings on this subject.
3) I would like to stress again the difficulty the State Department had in getting information pertinent to the military-political decisions involved in the Korean situation. You will recall that you charged me one time last summer with following the question of Russian and Chinese communist intentions and presenting currently to the morning meeting our best information on this subject. Just as an example of the difficulties we encountered, I would like to take the question of the port of Rashin which has come up in the hearings. There is some material on this in the notes I placed at Luke Battle's disposal. Although General MacArthur said in his testimony that the military would never have bombed the place except in good weather and visibility, it is my recollection that General MacArthur's communiqué of August 12, 1950, stated that the port had been bombed through heavy overcast. Furthermore, a story sent from Tokyo the same day by the Herald Tribune correspondents said in effect that while it would be officially announced that the reason for bombing the port was its importance in the supply line of the communist forces in North Korea, this was merely a pretext, that nothing of consequence had been known to pass through the port since the beginning of hostilities, and that the real reason was the existence of Soviet naval installations in the port. Now during the entire time I had the responsibility of briefing you on these matters I was never able to get a statement out of our intelligence authorities as to whether there were or were not such installations in the port, or even an admission that our intelligence authorities knew whether there were such installations. I can only conclude that in this, as in other instances, people in the Headquarters in Tokyo were willing to leak things to American correspondents which they were not willing to transmit for the information of the State Department. Despite repeated inquiries about communications through this port I was never told by any of our intelligence people that it did not have a railroad connection with the rest of Korea or Korean territory, and in all our discussions I was allowed to labor under the delusion that it might be an important point
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on the rail supply route to the Korean communist forces on the east coast. Finally, when in late summer I inquired about what was going on along the Yalu River I was told that our military people had no idea, did not fly reconnaissance in that area, and had no military reason for doing so at the time. They wanted to know whether this was a request from the State Department that they conduct such a reconnaissance, and I told them emphatically that it was not.
In short, my impression was that, whatever the reasons, it did not prove possible for the State Department in the crucial months of last summer to obtain all the important information at the disposal of our Government and relevant to the problem of Russian and Chinese communist intentions in the event of an advance of our forces beyond the parallel. This obviously made it difficult for the Department to take definite positions on the decisions involved.
4) It seems to me that all the way through the testimony to date, there has been evidence of an inability on the part of some of the Senators to recognize what I might call the dialectics of the relationship between the Government and General MacArthur. By this I mean the simple fact that while there were many things concerning his position and his decisions and his methods of operation, both in Japan and Korea, about which numbers of people in Washington may have had doubts and misgivings from time to time, these were not "quarrels" or "disagreements," and in most cases people-- bearing in mind the General's position of responsibility and his distinguished personality--refrained from making issues of these matters or from taking up in ways that might have irritated him or led to altercation with his Headquarters. Nevertheless, the situation was essentially an abnormal one. In his capacity as SCAP, the General was constantly obliged to take actions which had major importance from the standpoint of U.S. foreign policy. Yet the elevated nature of his position there and the necessity of preserving his prestige in Japan meant that the Government could not really exercise an effective control over his actions. Such a system can be operable only by the greatest mutual confidence and tact between people in Washington and the men in the field. It is my own impression that Washington went very far to permit the General to handle matters in his own way, even to the point of sanctioning many things to which exception might have been taken. But I cannot say that the General seemed to evidence at any time any particular reciprocal confidence in the people who were handling things in Washington. I do not recall any evidence that he took the initiative at any time to endeavor to get a better understanding with the people charged with the conduct of our foreign relations. The real issue in the relations between the Department of State and
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the General seems to me to be only this: Did the Department evince over a long period of time good will and patience and forbearance in trying to make an abnormal and difficult situation work, or did it not; and to my mind there can only be one answer to that question.
5) I do not think the full implications of the attacks on our Formosa policy have been pointed out to the public. What I mean is this. The people who charge us with delinquency for having consented, conditionally, to discuss the Formosa question imply that it is wrong for us to consent to discuss in an international body any important question on which we are not fairly sure that we will be supported by a majority. This is very similar indeed to the Soviet position, and people who make this criticism of our Government should certainly not be found among the ranks of those who criticize the Soviet veto policy and the Soviet reluctance to see handled by the General Assembly of the United Nations problems on which they know they will be voted down. This is a question which should be clarified, for if it is really the view of our people that we should not even discuss in international bodies questions on which we fear we might not command a majority, then I think we have been deceiving ourselves and others by our participation in the United Nations, and we should examine carefully whether such a view is really compatible with membership in international organizations.
Again, if we are to accept the thesis that any deference to the views our allies and associates in the world means that we have accepted their "veto" or that our policies are being "dictated" by them it is quite out of the question that the North Atlantic Treaty or the United Nations or any multilateral organization in which we participate can be made to work. This, again, is pure Soviet thinking. If people cannot understand that practically every issue of foreign affairs involves a reasonable compromise and accommodation between our views and those of other people, and that it is rarely a case of our having our way entirely or of yielding entirely to the views of others, and should not be, then there can be no understanding of the essence of foreign policy itself. Any approach not based on this understanding can end up only in an isolation very similar to that of the Soviet Union.
I am sure this is enough, and probably more than you have time to read. But I thought some of the ideas might be clarifying.
With all best wishes,
Sincerely,
s/George Kennan
George Kennan
P.S. Please forgive the corrections on the last page; I am leaving for California and have written this in haste.
The Honorable The Secretary of State Washington, 25 D.C.
World War II Stafford Little Lecture Series
May 1, 1951 Princeton, N.J.
The Cambridge historian Herbert Butterfield, recently wrote: "Behind the great conflicts of mankind is a terrible human predicament which lies at the heart of the story:… Contemporaries fail to see the predicament or refuse to recognize its genuineness so that our knowledge of it comes from later analysis-it is only with the progress of historical science on a particular subject that men come really to recognize that there was a terrible knot almost beyond the ingenuity of man to untie."
I do not suppose that this was anymore true of World War II than of any other great physical conflict. But the fact remains that it was a war poorly understood by the peoples who fought it on the democratic side, and particularly ourselves; and I am sure that this lack of understanding of what was involved in the conflict itself has much to do with the great bewilderment and trouble we seem now to be experiencing in adjusting ourselves to the situation in left in it train
It occurs to me that perhaps the most helpful thing to understand about this recent war is the extent to which it was prejudiced, as a military encounter, before it was begun-the extent to which, you might say, it was not fully winnable
Let me explain how this was. Before the war began the overwhelming portion of the world's armed strength in land forces and air
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forces had accumulated in the hands of three political entities-Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia, and Imperial Japan. All of these entities were deeply and dangerously hostile to the western democracies. As things stood in the late thirties, if these three powers to combine their efforts and stick together in a military enterprise, the remaining Western nations plainly had no hope of defeating them on the land mass of Europe and Asia, with the armaments they had or even those in prospect. In Europe and Asia, Western democracy had become militarily out-classed. The world balance of power had turned decisively against it
I am not claiming that this was perceived, or would have been easy to perceive, by Western statesmen. But I believe it was a reality. And as such, it plainly limited the actual prospects for the West if war were to occur. Of the three totalitarian powers, Japan was the only one which could conceivably be defeated by the democracies without invoking for this purpose the aid of one of the other totalitarian powers. In the case of Germany and Russia, the situation was bitter. Together, they could not be defeated at all. Individually, either of them could be defeated only if the democracies had the collaboration of the other
But such collaboration, if permitted to proceed to the point of complete victory, would mean the relative strengthening of the collaborating power and its eventual appearance as a greedy and implacable claimant as the peace table. Not only that: any war in which one of these two powers was fighting on the side of democracies could hardly be fought to a complete and successful finish without placing the collaborating totalitarian power in occupation of large parts of Eastern Europe simply by virtue of the sweep of military operations.
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As things stood in 1939, therefore, the Western democracies were already under the handicap of being militarily the weaker party. They could hardly have expected to avoid paying the price. Thiers were no longer the choices of strength. The cards were so stacked against them that any complete, unsullied democratic victory in a new world war was practically impossible to foresee
Now it may be asked, from the vantage point of hindsight, whether, if this was the case, Western statesmen would not have been wiser in the years prior to hostilities to have shaped their policies in such a way as to embroil the totalitarian powers with one another in order that they might exhaust each other and leave the security of Western democracies undiminished. This is, of course, precisely what Soviet propaganda has charged Western statesmen with doing in the thirties, and indeed some of their actions were so ambiguous and ill-advised as to seem to lend substance to the charge. Actually, it would be flattering to the vigor and incisiveness of Western policy in those unhappy years of the late thirties if we could believe that it was capable of such desperate and Machiavellian undertakings. I personally can find no evidence that any substantial body of responsible opinion in any of the Western countries really wished for war at all at that time-even one between Russia and Germany. It was plain that a war between the Nazis and the Russian Communists could take place only over the prostrate bodies of the small states of Eastern Europe. And notwithstanding the tragedy of Munich, the extinction of the independence of these Eastern European states was something no one wished for. If other evidence of this were lacking, you had the bald fact that it was, after all, the issue of the independence of Poland for which the French and British finally went to war in 1939.
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The fact is that a policy aimed deliberately at the embroilment of the totalitarian powers against each other was - for subjective reasons-never really a practical alternative for democratic statesmen. People who wish well for the democratic idea can find in that fact a source of hope or despair, depending on how they look at it. And as the shades of war closed down over Europe in the summer of 1939, the dilemma of Western statesmen, as we now see it in retrospect, was clear and inescapable. There was no prospect for victory over Germany, unless it were with the help of Russia. But for such help, even if it were forth-coming, the Western democracies would have to pay heavily in the military consequences of the war and in the demands that would be raised at the peace table. Their military purposes, in other words, were mortgaged in advance. They might be achieved, as far as Germany was concerned; but there would be a heavy political charge against them. This was not, incidentally, merely a matter of collaboration with Soviet Russia. The tortured compromises the democracies were destined eventually to make with Vichy and with Franco Spain and elsewhere were all part of this pattern. They were part of the price of Western military weakness. It is important that these things be recognized; for when we look at the problem of the Western powers in this light, bearing in mind the unpromising nature of the military undertaking on which they were embarking in 1939, we begin to wonder whether the great mistakes of Western statesmen in connection with this world war were really those of the wartime period at all-whether they were not rather the earlier mistakes-or perhaps we ought to say earlier circumstances-which had permitted the development of a situation so grievously and fatefully "loaded" against Western interests. This is of course the problem of the deeper origins
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of the war and I think we have no choice but to face it, for the thought at once suggests itself that the best way to win so inauspicious a war might have been to find some way in which one would not have had to fight it at all. By September, 1939, it was of course too late for this. By that time, the French and British had no choice, any more than we had in the Pacific in the days following Pearl Harbor. But was there a time when it was not too late?
The question as to what Western statesmen might have done to avoid World War II is not an easy one. It is a little disconcerting to find respectable scholars, such as the French historian Bainville, claiming as early as 1920 to see a peculiar logic in the situation flowing from World War I and predicting quite accurately, on the basis of this logic, the general course of events up to and including the outbreak of World War II. It is disconcerting, because it leads you to ask whether World War II was not perhaps implicit in the outcome of World War I; in the fact that England and France had been injured and weakened far more deeply than they knew in that first encounter; in the fact that Austria-Hungary and Russia were both lost for the maintenance of European stability: Austria-Hungary because she had disappeared entirely, Russia because her energies and resources had been captured by people violently hostile to capitalist democracy in general; and in the fact that the Germans-frustrated, impoverished, stinging with defeat, uncertain in the breakdown of their traditional institutions-were nevertheless left as the only great united people in central Europe. Looking at these things, it was easy to conclude that World War II just could not help but develop; that it was nothing more than the inevitable aftermath of World War I. You then start poking back into the origins of the earlier war to discover the real sources
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of the instability of our time. And from this standpoint it is only a step to absolving the western statesmen of the twenties and thirties of all responsibility for the second war, and to regarding them exclusively as the actors in a tragedy beyond their making or repair. This is of course an extremism. Statesmen, it is true, generally, inherit from their predecessors predicaments and dilemmas to which they can see no complete solutions; their ability to improve situations by action over the short term is often quite genuinely limited; but over the long term (and two decades is a respectable length of time) there are always some choices at their disposal. I think it fair to say that World War I was a genuine tragedy which left the Western world much worse off afterward than it had been before and significantly narrowed the choices of Western statesmen in the postwar period; but it did not eliminate those choices entirely. There were, in other words, still things that "could have been done" and which we may assume would at least have been helpful and have had greater possibilities of preventing further tragedy than the things that were done. Insofar as we are talking about Germany, there are two such things that strike me as of obvious importance, and in both of them we Americans could, had we wished, have taking considerable part. First we could have tried to give greater understanding, support and encouragement to the moderate forces in the Weimar Republic. And if that did not succeed in preventing the rise of Nazism, then we could have taken a stiffer and more resolute attitude against Hitler's earlier encroachments and provocations.
It is the last of these two possibilities, that of a stronger stand against Hitler at an earlier date, that has received most prominence
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in Western thought and has constituted the source of most reproaches to democratic statesmanship between the wars. Unquestionably, such a policy might have enforced a greater circumspection on the Nazi regime and caused it to proceed more slowly with the realization of its timetable. From this standpoint, firmness at the time of the re-occupation of the Rhineland in 1936 would probably have yielded even better results than firmness at the time of Munich. But I wonder whether we do not tend to exaggerate the relative importance of this question of stopping Hitler once he was in power, as compared with the importance of seeing to it that a person of his ilk should not come into power at all in a great Western country. It was a defeat for the West, of course, that Hitler was able to consolidate his power and be successful in the years 1933-1939. But actually the West had suffered an even greater defeat on the day when the Germany people found itself in such a frame of mind that it could, without great resistance or remonstrance, accept a Hitler as its leader and master.
A stiffer attitude on the part of the Western democracies might, it is true, have resulted in Hitler's overthrow and his replacement by a less obnoxious regime before war could come; in fact, there is evidence that a revolt might well have been attempted had the British and French had the perceptiveness to stand firm at the time of Munich. But great uncertainties lay along this path. The hypnotic charm of Nazism was already strong upon the German people. If anyone had overthrown Hitler, presumably it would have been the generals. Whether they would have been able to control the situation subsequently, to lay the ghost not only of Nazism but of German aggressiveness in general, and to adjust peaceably their relations with the West, is not certain. The great misfortune of the West, I suspect, was
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not Hitler but the weakness of German Society which made possible his triumph. And it is this which takes us back to this question of the approach of the Western democracies to the Weimar Republic.
Events have moved so fast that we have almost lost sight of this intensely interesting period in German history-the period before 1933, with its amazing cultural and intellectual flowering, so full of hope and yet to close to despair. In the decade of the twenties Berlin was the most alive of the capitals of Europe, and things were taking place there from which the Western democracies might have derived profit and instruction. It is true that the peace treaty we Americans concluded with Weimar Germany was non-punitive. We Americans cannot be justly charged with any political offensiveness toward the new Germany. We even financed it rather lavishly, though foolishly. But what I am thinking of pertained not just to us but to the Western democracies in general, and it was something more than just political or financial: it was a general attitude of distaste and suspicion, intermingled with the sort of social snobbery so grotesque that as late as 1927 a German could still not be admitted to the golf links at Geneva, the seat of the League of Nations. We did nothing to harm Weimar Germany; but we left it very much to its own devices. There are times when that is a good policy toward another country. But I fear that this was not one of those times. Here, in any case, were lost opportunities; and it is significant that they lay as much in the cultural and intellectual as in the political field.
Now a word about Russia-the second totalitarian party. Was there nothing we could have done, prior to 1939, to keep this great country out of the camp of our adversaries? I am sorry that we cannot devote an
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entire lecture to this subject, for it is an interesting one and close to my heart. I do not feel that we in this country always conducted ourselves in the manner best calculated to reduce the dimensions of the Soviet threat. I think we might have done more to win the respect, if not the liking, of the Russian Communists; and the respect of your enemies-as we are apt sometimes to forget-is nothing to be sneezed at. But I know of little that we could have done to alter basically the political personality of the Bolshevik leadership or to moderate the violent preconceptions against Western democracy on which it was reared and with which it came into power. These things had deep psychological roots, lying in specifically Russian phenomena. Whether the capitalist democracies of the West had done things prior to 1917 to deserve this burning hostility on the part of the political power in Russia, I do not know. But I am sure that, once developed, it was hardly to be altered by anything the West might do directly; and the best reaction to it on our part would have been at all times an attitude of great reserve, consistency, and dignity.
As for Japan, the problem of whether she had also to be ranged against us in war in the early 1940's was of course primarily our problem-not that of the French and British. I would wish that we could skip it entirely for purposes of this discussion; for it is a tremendous subject in itself, relatively remote from the causes of the war in Europe, and not easy to treat in a few words. But the fact of our simultaneous involvement with Japan and Germany was so important an element in the course and outcome of the war, that I think one cannot just pass the question by.
To discuss this problem at all adequately would be to discuss the entire sequence of American-Japanese relations over the half-century
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preceding the outbreak of war in the Pacific; and that we obviously cannot do tonight. To this we must add the disturbing fact that there can never be any certainty about these post mortems on history. It does seem plain that as the earlier decades and years of this century went by and the hour of Pearl Harbor approached, the choices of American statesmen that held promise of averting a war with Japan became narrower and narrower, so no one can be sure, I suppose, that anything we might have done or failed to do in the final years and months before the Japanese attack could really have forestalled the final outcome. If there were happier possibilities, they were surely more abundant in the more distant past, when our allotment of time was more generous and our area of diplomatic maneuver greater. But whether such possibilities really existed must remain a matter of opinion. My own feeling, for whatever it is worth, is that a policy carefully and realistically aimed at the avoidance of a war with Japan and less encumbered with other motives would certainly have involved a line of action considerably different from that which we actually pursued, and would presumably have led to quite different results.
But I think it is enough for us to record that here again, as in the European theatre, if there were ways in which this war might have been avoided altogether, they were probably ones that did relate to the more distant past: to a period when people were not thinking about war at all and had no idea that the things they were doing or failing to do were manufacturing for them this tremendous predicament of the future.
So we are back again to our fundamental fact that by the year 1939 things were really quite inauspicious for the Western democracies.
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The situation which they had allowed to arise was one for which there were no complete cures. Whether they realized it or not, the war could be for them, in the deeper sense, at best a war of defense: a war that might bring immediate survival but could scarcely bring an improvement in the stability of the world they lived in, and certainly not the advance of any of the more positive and constructive purposes of democracy. When this is borne in mind, the great decisions of the war years themselves appear for the most part in a more charitable light.
The first of these great decisions which deserves mention seems to me to have been our own decision-if we may call it that-not to enter the European war until the Germans declared war upon us. This was of course comparable to our behavior in World War I when we refrained from entering until an overt German action, namely the declaration of unrestricted submarine warfare, brought us in. And what seems to me most interesting about our conduct in each of these cases is the marked change in our emotional attitude toward the struggle itself, once we had become formally involved in it. Theoretically, if the issues involved in the European struggle were really as vital to us as we persuaded ourselves they were in the years 1942- 45, they were surely no less important from 1939-41. Actually, in that earlier period, before the German attack on Russia, the cause of the British and French could really be called the cause of freedom and democracy, for very little else was involved in the Western side; whereas later, when we did discover that our vital stake in the anti-German cause was such as to warrant great military sacrifice on our part, it was at a time when that cause had been rendered ambiguous, as anything more than a defensive undertaking, by the participation of the USSR on the side of the democracies.
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Now I mention this, because, making all due allowance for the deliberateness of the opinion-forming process in a democracy, it does look as though the real source of the emotional fervor which we Americans are able to put into a war effort lies less in an objective understanding of the wider issues involved than in a profound sort of irritation over the fact that other people have finally provoked us to the point where we had no alternative but to take up arms. This lends to the democratic war effort a basically punitive note, rather than one of expediency. I mention this because if there is anything in this thought it goes far to explain the difficulty we have in employing force for rational and restricted purposes rather than for ones which are emotional and to which it is hard to find a rational limit.
Once we had come into the European war, and granted the heavy military handicaps with which the Western powers were then confronted in that theatre, the decisions taken throughout the remainder of the war years were those of harried, overworked men, operating in the vortex of a series of tremendous pressures, military and otherwise, which we today find it difficult to remember or to imagine. I think that some injustice is being done both to the men in question and to the cause of historical understanding by the latter-day interpretations which view specific decisions of the wartime years as the source of all our present difficulties. The most vociferous charges of wartime mistakes relate primarily to our dealings with the USSR, and particularly to the wartime conferences of Moscow, Teheran, and Yalta. As one who was very unhappy about these conferences at the time they were taking place and very worried lest they lead to false hopes and misunderstandings I may perhaps be permitted to
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say that I think their importance has recently been considerably overrated. If it cannot be said that the Western democracies gained very much from these talks with the Russians, it would also be incorrect to say that they gave very much away. The establishment of Soviet military power in Eastern Europe and the entry of Soviet forces into Manchuria was not the result of these talks; it was the result of the military operations of the concluding phases of the war. There was nothing the Western democracies could have done to prevent the Russians from entering these areas except to get there first, and this they were not in a position to do. The implication that Soviet forces would not have gone into Manchuria if Roosevelt had not arrived at the Yalta understanding with Stalin is surely nonsense. Nothing could have stopped the Russians from participating in the final phases of the Pacific war, in order to be in at the kill and to profit by an opportunity to gain objectives they had been seeking for a half a century.
It is similarly incorrect to portray the Yalta agreement as a terrible betrayal of Nationalist China. The agreement was that we should recommend certain things to the Chinese Government. The leaders of that Government were not averse to these things at the time. They had asked us, long before Yalta, to help them to arrange their affairs with the Soviet Government. They later expressed themselves as well satisfied with what we had done. And in the subsequent negotiations which they themselves conducted independently with the Russians and which actually constituted the controlling arrangements for the future with respect to Manchuria, they went in some respects further in the way of concessions to the Soviet Union than anything that had been agreed upon at Yalta and
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recommended to them by us. They did this despite the fact that they were specifically warned by us that in doing so they were acting on their own responsibility and not at our recommendation.
The worst that can fairly be said about the wartime conferences from the practical standpoint, therefore, is that they were somewhat redundant, and led to a certain number of false hopes here and elsewhere. But we must remember, in this connection, that these conferences had a distinct value as practical demonstrations of our readiness and eagerness to establish better relations with the Soviet regime and of the difficulties we encountered in our effort to do so. Like other evidences of patience and good will, they were important for the record. Had we not gone into them, it is my guess that we would still be hearing reproachful voices saying: "You claim that cooperation with Russia is not possible. How do you know? You never even tried."
A more substantial charge against our wartime policy toward Russia, although one we hear less about, is that which relates to the continuation of lend-lease during the latter period of the war, and specifically subsequent to midsummer of 1944. By that time, as you will recall, Russia's own territory had been freed of the enemy; our own talking position vis-a-vis the Russians had been considerably improved by the creation of a successful second front; and from there on out whatever the Russian forces did was bound to have important political consequences for European peoples other than the Germans-consequences which went far beyond the mere defeat of Germany. I think it can be well argued that there was no adequate justification for refusing to give any attention to these developing political problems and for continuing a program of lavish and almost indiscriminate aid to the Soviet Union at a time when there was increasing
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reason to doubt whether her purposes in Eastern Europe, aside from the defeat of Germany, would be ones which we Americans could approve and sponsor.
But in all these matters we must bear in mind both the overriding compulsion of military necessity under which our statesmen were working and also the depth of their conviction that one had no choice but to gamble on the possibility that Soviet suspicions might be broken down and Soviet collaboration won for the postwar period, if there were to be any hope of permanent peace. Many of us who were familiar with Russian matters were impatient with this line of thought at the time, because we knew how poor were the chances of success, and we saw no reason why a Western world which kept its nerves, its good humor and a due measure of military preparedness should not continue indefinitely to live in the same world with the power of the Kremlin without flying to either of the extremes of political intimacy or war. In the light of what has occurred subsequently, I can see that our view, too, was not fully rounded. We were right about the nature of Soviet power; but we were wrong about the ability of American democracy at this stage in its history to bear for long a situation full of instability, inconvenience and military danger. Perhaps Harry Hopkins and FDR had more reason than we then supposed to believe that everything depended on the possibility of changing the attitude of the Soviet regime. But if so, this is then only an indication that the dilemma was crueler than any of us really appreciated, and the crisis of our time one of such profundity that even the vast dislocations of World War II were only a partial symptom of it.
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And there is no reason to suppose that had we behaved differently either with respect to lend-lease or with respect to wartime conferences the outcome of military events in Europe would have been greatly different than it was. We might have wasted less money and material than we did. We might have arrived in the center of Europe slightly sooner and less encumbered with obligations to our Soviet allies. The postwar line of division between East and West might have lain somewhat further east than it does today, and that would certainly be a relief to everyone concerned. But we were still up against the basic dilemma that Hitler was a man with whom a compromise peace was impracticable and unthinkable, and that while "unconditional surrender" was probably not a wise thing to talk a lot about and make into a wartime slogan, in reality there was no promising alternative but to pursue this unhappy struggle to its bitter end, whether you were acting in agreement with your Russian allies or whether you were not; and this meant that sooner or later you would end up on some sort of a line in Central or Eastern Europe, and probably more Central than Eastern, with ourselves on the one side and Soviet forces on the other, and with the understanding between us just about what it has proved to be in these past six years since the termination of hostilities.
Remembering these things, I think we are justified in asking whether the greatest mistakes of World War II were really those tortured and hard- pressed decisions which defined military operations and gave shape to inter- Allied relations in the stress of military operations-whether they were really, in other words, the errors of decision on the part of a few highly placed individuals-or whether they were not rather the deeper mistakes of understanding and attitude on the part of our society in general with respect to a military venture in which we were engaged.
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First of all, there was the failure to remember the essentially and inescapably defensive nature of this particular war, as one in which we in the West were initially the weaker party, capable of achieving only a portion of our purposes and of achieving that portion only in collaboration with a totalitarian adversary and at a price. This failure stemmed from our general ignorance of the historical processes of our age, and particularly from our lack of attention to the power realities involved in given situations.
But beyond that, it seems to me, there lay a deeper failure of understanding-a failure to appreciate the limitations of war in general-of any war-as a vehicle for the achievement of the objectives of the democratic state. This is the question of the proper relationship of such things as force and coercion to the purposes of democracy. That they have a place in the international as well as the domestic functioning of democracy I would be the last to deny. That will continue to be true until the world is an entirely different world than what we have known it to be throughout our national history. But I would submit that we will continue to harm our own interests almost as much as we benefit them if we continue to employ the instruments of coercion in the international field without a better national understanding of their significance and possibilities. It is essential to recognize that the maiming and killing of man and the destruction of human shelters and other installations, however necessary it may be for other reasons, cannot in itself make a positive contribution to any democratic purpose. It can be the regrettable alternative to similar destruction in our own country or killing of our own people. It can conceivably protect values which it is necessary to
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protect and which can be protected in no other way. Occasionally, if used with forethought and circumspection and restraint, it may trade the lesser violence for the greater and impel the stream of human events into channels which will be more hopeful ones than it would otherwise have taken. But basically, the democratic purpose does not prosper when a man dies or a building collapses or an enemy force retreats. It may be hard for it to prosper unless these things happen, and in that lies the entire justification for the use of force at all as a weapon of national policy. But the actual prospering occurs only when something happens in a man's mind that increases his enlightenment and the consciousness of his real relation to other people-something that makes him aware that whenever the dignity of another man is offended, his own dignity, as a man among men, is thereby reduced. And this is why the destructive process of war must always be accompanied by, or made subsidiary to, a different sort of undertaking aimed at the widening of the horizons and the changing of the motives of men, and should never be thought of in itself as a proper vehicle for hopes and enthusiasms and dreams of world improvement. Force, like peace, is not an abstraction, and cannot be understood or dealt with as a concept outside of the given framework of purpose and method. If this were better understood, there could be neither the sweeping moral rejection of international violence which bedevils so many Americans in times of peace nor the helpless abandonment to its compulsions and its inner momentum which characterizes so many of us in times of war.
It is hard for me to say how different would have been our situation today had our public opinion and the mental outlook of our leading personalities been marked by a comprehension of these realities throughout the entire period of the '30s and '40s which we associate with World
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War II. It is easy to imagine that the war might never have come upon us in the form that it did, had this been the case. Or perhaps, even if it had come upon us we might have been prepared to enter it sooner and in greater force, and thus have been able to end it in a way more favorable to the interests of moderation and stability in world affairs. But these are only conjectures. The historian can never prove that a better comprehension of realities would have prevented any specific calamity or obviated any of the major human predicaments. He can only say that in the law of averages it should have helped.
At the very worst, we can be sure that had we understood better the elements of our situation during World War II we would be calmer and more united and less irritated with one another today in this country, for we would have been better prepared for the things that have happened since 1945 and less inclined to mistake them for the product of somebody else's individual stupidity or bad faith. But actually it is my belief, which I cannot prove, that the benefits would have gone much farther than this. The possibilities which lie in human understanding, like those that lie in darkness and ignorance, are rarely hypothetically demonstrable; but sometimes, they are surprising.